Titre : | Deforestation and its association with the outbreak of the Zoonotic Mpox virus in the Central African Republic (CAR) |
Auteurs : | Hein Minn Tun ; Ecole des hautes études en santé publique (EHESP) (Rennes, FRA) |
Type de document : | Mémoire |
Année de publication : | 2023 |
Description : | 56p. |
Langues: | Français |
Classement : | MPH23/ (Master EHESP International master of public health - MPH) |
Mots-clés : | Variole ; Déforestation ; Impact ; République démocratique Congo ; Ecologie ; Zoonose ; Centrafrique ; Frontière ; Urbanisme |
Résumé : |
Background and objective: The Central African Republic (CAR) experienced a significant rise in annual confirmed Mpox outbreak events, particularly in forested regions bordering the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Additionally, CAR witnessed substantial forest loss between 2010 and 2021. This study aims to investigate the association between deforestation and zoonotic Mpox outbreaks in CAR from January 2015 to January 2023, while identifying relevant ecological factors.
Methods: This retrospective ecological case-control study utilized zoonotic Mpox event data from CAR's national surveillance system, with randomly selected control from unaffected Mpox settlements. The at-risk environment was defined using the maximum autocorrelation distance between settlements, and environmental data were extracted within this radius. Clustering analysis was used to group settlements based on similar climate and landscape profiles, regardless of outbreak events. Deforestation was quantified as the percentage of forest loss at different time lags, and association with outbreaks was assessed using a generalized additive multilevel logistic regression model. Matching by the same outbreak location and population by year was conducted to enhance robustness. Results: 50 zoonotic Mpox outbreaks event as cases were more commonly observed in densely populated areas (median: 5,120, IQR: 993, 9,984) with landscapes dominated by agriculture (35%), and dense evergreen closed forests (42%). Comparison with the control group of 10,615 using the generalized additive model revealed positive association between increase forest loss in the same year or one year prior and the occurrence of Mpox outbreaks (OR:1.53, 95% CI: 1.003, 2.36 with linearity assumption) which remained consistent even after adjusting for or matching with population, and landscape. Conclusion: This study suggested the link between increased forest loss and zoonotic Mpox outbreak events in CAR. Urbanization and agricultural expansion increase forest loss, intensifying wildlife-human interaction. Preventing forest loss is vital for reducing future outbreaks. |
Diplôme : | Master MPH of public health |
Plan de classement simplifié : | Master of Public Health - master international de Santé Public (MPH) |
En ligne : | https://documentation.ehesp.fr/memoires/2023/mph/hein_minn_tun.pdf |
Exemplaires (1)
Code-barres | Cote | Support | Localisation | Section | Disponibilité |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
096536 | MPH23/0022 | Mémoire | Rennes | Salle des Glénan | Empruntable Disponible |