| Titre : | Modeling of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: Consolidation of key parameters and the use of a multi-vaccine compartmental model on the impact assessment of a potential fourth COVID-19 wave in Ile-de-France |
| Auteurs : | Vanessa Rascon-Velasco |
| Type de document : | Mémoire |
| Année de publication : | 2021 |
| Description : | 44p. / ann., tabl. |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Classement : | MPH21/ |
| Mots-clés : | Covid 19 ; Recherche médicale ; Modèle mathématique ; Epidémie ; Etude prospective ; Vaccination ; Revue de littérature ; Impact ; Hospitalisation ; Ile de France |
| Résumé : |
Introduction: Mathematical models have been progressively used in scientific research, and have assisted decision makers and public health policy on the study of the magnitude of outbreaks, as well as with the efficacy evaluation of interventions and resource allocation. Consequently, they have been great guiding instruments for the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.
Objective: To provide a consolidated list of key parameters that influence the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and to use a mathematical model for the evaluation of the clinical impact of a fourth epidemic wave caused by the circulation of variants in partially vaccinated Ile-de-France. Methods: Parameters were gathered from online databases, scientific publications and grey literature. Equally, analyses of the clinical impact of a fourth wave consisted in simulating with a compartmental ODE model three epidemic scenarios based on different attained vaccination coverage using Comirnaty, COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna and Vaxzevria vaccines by early September 2021. Results: Twenty-five key parameters representing various aspects of the current pandemic were collected. Additionally, simulations run by the model predicted that a fourth surge of COVID-19 hospitalizations is very likely showing a peak of 713, 1,760 and 2,240 daily hospitalizations in the optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Likewise, only the optimistic scenario did not show an overrun of Ile-de-France’s intensive care unit, while the realistic and pessimistic scenarios showed an overrun by 11 Dec 2021 with a need of 5,144 daily beds, and on the 28 Nov 2021 with a need of 6,550, respectively. Conclusion: More than three quarters of Ile-de-France’s population need to be vaccinated by 01 Sept 2021 if hospital saturation is to be avoided. Otherwise, an implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions needs to be reinstituted during the autumn and winter 2021, at least until vaccines with higher efficacies and medical treatments are approved. |
| Diplôme : | Master MPH of public health |
| Plan de classement simplifié : | Master of Public Health - master international de Santé Public (MPH) |
| En ligne : | https://documentation.ehesp.fr/memoires/2021/mph/vanessa_rascon_velasco.pdf |
Exemplaires (1)
| Code-barres | Cote | Support | Localisation | Section | Disponibilité |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 090333 | MPH21/0008 | Mémoire | Rennes | Magasin | Empruntable Disponible |
Documents numériques (1)
 https://documentation.ehesp.fr/memoires/2021/mph/vanessa_rascon_velasco.pdf URL |