Titre :
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An Updated Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer : Derivation of Model Parameters (2014)
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Auteurs :
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Nicole-G CAMPOS ;
Emily-A Burger ;
Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard School of Public Health (Boston MA, Etats-Unis) ;
Stephen SY ;
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute (Bethesda MD, Etats-Unis) ;
Proyecto Epidemiologica Guanacaste, Fundacion Inciensa (San Jose, Costa rica) ;
Monisha SHARMA ;
Mark SCHIFFMAN ;
Ana-Cecilia Rodriguez ;
Allan HILDESHEIM ;
Rolando HERRERO ;
Jane-J KIM
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Type de document :
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Article
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Dans :
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American journal of epidemiology (vol. 180, n° 5, septembre 2014)
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Pagination :
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545-555
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Langues:
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Anglais
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Mots-clés :
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Homme
;
Utérus
;
Epidémiologie
;
Virus
;
Cancer
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Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS HE7R0xpk. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Mathematical models of cervical cancer have been widely used to evaluate the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive strategies. Major advances in the understanding of cervical carcinogenesis motivate the creation of a new disease paradigm in such models. To keep pace with the most recent evidence, we updated a previously developed microsimulation model of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer to reflect 1) a shift towards health states based on HPV rather than poorly reproducible histological diagnoses and 2) HPV clearance and progression to precancer as a function of infection duration and genotype, as derived from the control arm of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (2004-2010). The model was calibrated leveraging empirical data from the New Mexico Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry (1980-1999) and a state-of-the-art cervical cancer screening registry in New Mexico (2007-2009). The calibrated model had good correspondence with data on genotype-and age-specific HPV prevalence, genotype frequency in precancer and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. We present this model in response to a call for new natural history models of cervical cancer intended for decision analysis and economic evaluation at a time when global cervical cancer prevention policy continues to evolve and evidence of the long-term health effects of cervical interventions remains critical.
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