Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS R0xnk99B. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Objectives. We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates. Methods. We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults). Results. Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM]=0.25 ; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI]=0.07,0.45) and adults (PM=0.07 ; 95% BCI=0.02,0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM=0.14 ; 95% BCI=0.02,0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM=-104.20 ; 95% BCl=-182.0, - 26.14) and adults (PM=-28.76 ; 95% BCI=-52.65, - 5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM=-0.01 ; 95% BCl=-0.02, - 0.001). Conclusions. Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.
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