Titre :
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Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation. (2006)
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Auteurs :
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Andrew-P JONES ;
Joyce-Dk ESSIEN ;
Jack-B HOMER ;
Bobby MILSTEIN ;
Dara-L MURPHY ;
Donald-A SEVILLE
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Type de document :
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Article
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Dans :
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American journal of public health (vol. 96, n° 3, 2006)
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Pagination :
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488-494
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Langues:
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Anglais
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Mots-clés :
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Diabète
;
Simulation
;
Expérimentation humaine
;
Expérimentation médicale
;
Population
;
Homme
;
Glande endocrine [pathologie]
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Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS Y5tl9R0x. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.
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