Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS CrmER0xC. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Objectives. We determined time trends in numbers and rates of fall-related mortality in an aging population, for men and women. Methods. We performed secular trend analysis of fall-related deaths in the older Dutch population (persons aged 65 years or older) from 1969 to 2008, using the national Official-Cause-of-Death-Statistics. Results. Between 1969 and 2008, the age-adjusted fall-related mortality rate decreased from 202.1 to 66.7 per 100000 older persons (decrease of 67 %). However, the annual percentage change (change per year) in mortality rates was not constant, and could be divided into 3 phases : (1) a rapid decrease until the mid-1980s (men - 4.1 % ; 95 % confidence interval [CI]=-4.9, - 3.2 ; women - 6.5 % ; 95 % CI, - 7.1, - 5.9), (2) flattening of the decrease until the mid-1990s (men - 1.4 % ; 95 % CI =-2.4, - 0.4 ; women - 2.0 % ; 95 % CI =-3.4, - 0.6), and (3) stable mortality rates for women (0.0 % ; 95 % CI =-1.2,1.3) and rising rates for men (1.9 % ; 95 % CI =0.6,3.2) over the last decade. Conclusions. The spectacular decrease in fall-related mortality ended in the mid-1990s and is currently increasing in older men at similar rates to those seen in women. Because of the aging society, absolute numbers in fall-related deaths are increasing rapidly.
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