Titre :
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A space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness. (1998)
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Auteurs :
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L. TOUBIANA ;
A. FLAHAULT ;
Inserm U 444. Institut Fédératif Saint-Antoine de Recherche sur la Santé. Paris. FRA
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Type de document :
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Article
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Dans :
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European journal of epidemiology (vol. 14, n° 5, 1998)
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Pagination :
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465-470
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Langues:
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Anglais
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Mots-clés :
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Grippe
;
Virose
;
Infection
;
Diagnostic
;
Surveillance épidémiologique
;
Epidémiologie
;
Incidence
;
Méthodologie
;
Evaluation
;
Homme
;
France
;
Europe
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Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST u8R0xjlx. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Objectives : To develop a method based on a space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness in France. Methods : Since 1984, the French Communicable Diseases computer Network (FCDN) routinely detects epidemics of influenza-like-illness when the national incidence rate is, for 2 consecutive weeks, above a threshold computed by a periodic regression model. It appears that some areas reported early increases in incidence several weeks before the national epidemic. An optimised space-time criterion allows an early detection of the epidemic periods. Results : Applying this space-time criterion to the last 11 epidemics (from 1986). the sensitivity was 0.82 and the specificity was 0.99. Conclusion : This simple procedure can be used as an additional tool for early detection of an epidemic taking into account the distribution of new cases in space and time.
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