Titre :
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Back-calculation and projection of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among homosexual/bisexual men in three European countries : Evaluation of past projections and updates allowing for treatment effects. (2004)
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Auteurs :
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ARTZROUNI (Marc) : FRA. Department of Applied Mathematics. University of Pau. Pau.
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Type de document :
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Article
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Dans :
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European journal of epidemiology (vol. 19, n° 2, 2004)
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Pagination :
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171-179
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Langues:
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Anglais
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Mots-clés :
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Sida
;
Virose
;
Infection
;
Homosexualité
;
Bisexualité
;
Europe
;
Pays
;
Thérapeutique
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France
;
Etude prospective
;
Allemagne
;
Homme
;
VIH
;
Rétrovirus
;
Virus
;
Royaume Uni
;
Epidémiologie
;
Tendance séculaire
;
Epidémie
;
Immunopathologie
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Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS R0x2EZgR. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. This study critically evaluates the quality of 1990 back-calculations and long-term projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for homosexual/bisexual men in France, the Federal Republic of Germany, and the UK. The projection captured the general pattern observed in all three countries although the observed AIDS incidence peaked 2-3 years later and declined faster than had been projected. Total AIDS incidences from 1989 to 2000 were overestimated by 38.5% in France, and underestimated by 23.9 and 17.5% in western Germany and the UK. Updated back-calculations and projections to 2020 use AIDS incidence data up to 2000. The procedure incorporates an asymmetric long-tailed cumulative HIV curve as well as the increase in the median incubation period brought about by new therapies introduced during the 1990s. The results suggest that : (i) The rapid decrease in cases during the late 1990s was caused by a median incubation period that increased from 10 years to 21-23 years by the late 1990s. (ii) An imminent bottoming out followed by a protracted increase in AIDS cases from 2000 to at least 2010 could be the consequence of a leveling off of the median incubation period. (iii) A low variant of the projections shows that at least 40,000 homosexual men could develop AIDS in the three countries after 2000.
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