Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST R0xmYHdb. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Background In spite of the high incidence of AIDS in Brazil, few studies have tried to evaluate the prognosis of asymptomatic HIV seropositive Brazilian patients. Methods A hospital outpatient facility-based cohort of HIV seropositive asymptomatic subjects was followed to determine their probability of remaining AIDS-free at 2 and 4 years of follow-up, as well as the one-year estimated cumulative probability of survival for the AIDS incident cases. The cohort was made up of all asymptomatic HIV seropositive subjects referred to the Immunology Branch of a large university hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1985 and June 1997. Results The cumulative probability of remaining free from AIDS was 79% ( 3.7% SE) at 2 years, and 64.4% ( 5.1% SE) at 4 years after first known positive anti-HIV serology. Women had a marginally significant better probability of remaining AIDS-free after both 2 and 4 years of known seropositivity, as compared with men. There were no significant differences in the prognosis of the infection by age ; the only single parameter associated with better prognosis was an initial CD4+count >=350/mul. The probability of survival one year after the diagnosis of AIDS was 78%, and the 50% estimated probability of survival was 19 months. Older patients (aged >=35 years) had a better prognosis, as suggested by their longer survival estimates (P=0.06). (...)
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