Titre :
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Smoking prevalence in 2010 : Why the healthy people goal is unattainable. (2000)
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Auteurs :
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D. MENDEZ ;
K.E. WARNER ;
Department of Health Management and Policy. School of Public Health. University of Michigan. Ann Arborn. USA
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Type de document :
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Article
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Dans :
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American journal of public health (vol. 90, n° 3, 2000)
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Pagination :
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401-403
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Langues:
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Anglais
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Mots-clés :
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Tabagisme
;
Initiation
;
Sevrage
;
Tabac
;
Désaccoutumance
;
Epidémiologie
;
Evolution
;
Prévalence
;
Homme
;
Projection
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Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST 0mu2wR0x. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Objectives. This study examined the changes in smoking initiation and cessation neddled to reative the Healthy People 2010 national adult smoking prevalence objective (13%). Methods. Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys, we calculated smoking prevalence over time with a dynamic population demographics model, examing the effects of changes in smoking initiation and cessation. Results The draft objective is unattainable solely through decreases in smoking initiation. It could be achieved through smoking cessation alone only of cessation rates immediately increased by a factor of more than 3.5. Assuming plausible decreases in initiation and increases in cessation, the draft objective la virtually unattainable. Conclusions. The health objectives should challenge the status quo but be achievable. Formal analysis often can assist an establishing reasonable objectives.
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