Résumé :
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This paper has a dual objective 1- to describe the current status of the structure of a newly developed model system to generate a wide span of US HIV/AIDS estimates and 2- to implement that system through the development of a dataset of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence, by stage i, the US for a range of past and furure years... This paper provides new and purposely pessimistic estimates of the levels of prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS for future years, based on US AIDS cases reported... The model estimates that cumulative cases of AIDS by end 1991 will be approximately 360.000 and, that by end 1992, those cases will have increased to approximately 473.000. The forecasts include corrections for reporting delays and are adjusted for an assumed CDC data-capture of 80%. (R.A.)
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