| Titre : | A new method for estimating smoking-attributable mortality in high-income countries. (2010) |
| Auteurs : | PRESTON (Samuel-H) : USA. Population Studies Center. University of Pennsylvania. Philadelphia. PA. ; Dana-A GLEI ; John-R WILMOTH ; Department of Demography. University of California. Berkeley. CA. USA |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | International journal of epidemiology (vol. 39, n° 2, 2010) |
| Pagination : | 430-438 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Mots-clés : | Tabagisme ; Méthodologie ; Méthode ; Estimation ; Tabac ; Mortalité ; Epidémiologie ; Pays développé ; Population ; Mort ; Facteur ; Cancer |
| Résumé : | [BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS R0xBDJpq. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Background Cigarette smoking is responsible for a massive loss of life in both developed and developing countries. This article develops an alternative to the Peto-Lopez method for estimating the number or fraction of smoking-attributable deaths in high-income countries. Methods We use lung cancer death rates as an indicator of the damage caused by smoking. Using administrative data for the population aged>=50 years from 20 high-income countries in the period from 1950 to 2006, we estimate a negative binomial regression model that predicts mortality from causes other than lung cancer as a function of lung cancer mortality and other variables. Using this regression model, we estimate smoking-attributable deaths based on the difference between observed death rates from lung cancer and expected rates among non-smokers. Results Combining the estimated number of excess deaths from lung cancer with those from other causes, we find that among males in 1955 the smoking-attributable fraction was highest in Finland (18%) ; among women, no country exceeded 1%. By 2003, Hungary had the highest fraction of smoking-attributable deaths among males (32%), whereas the USA held that position among women (24%). Our estimates are remarkably similar to those produced by the Peto-Lopez method, a result that supports the validity of each approach. Conclusions We provide a simple and straightforward method for estimating the proportion of deaths attributable to smoking in high-income countries. Our results demonstrate that smoking has played a central role in levels, trends and international differences in mortality over the past half century. |
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