| Titre : | Do Elevated Gravitational-Force Events While Driving Predict Crashes and Near Crashes ? (2012) |
| Auteurs : | Bruce-G SIMONS-MORTON ; Paul-S Albert ; JACKSON (John-C) : USA. Department of Mathematical Sciences. Us Military Academy. West Point. NY. ; . ZHIWEI ZHANG ; Division of Epidemiology. Statistics. And Prevention Research. Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Rockville. MD. USA |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | American journal of epidemiology (vol. 175, n° 10, 2012) |
| Pagination : | 1075-1079 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Mots-clés : | Prévention accident ; Adolescent ; Comportement ; Accident circulation ; Prise de risque ; Sécurité ; Epidémiologie ; Homme |
| Résumé : | [BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS n8R0xI78. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. The purpose of this research was to determine the extent to which elevated gravitational-force event rates predict crashes and near crashes. Accelerometers, global positioning systems, cameras, and other technology were installed in vehicles driven by 42 newly licensed Virginia teenage drivers for a period of 18 months between 2006 and 2009. Elevated gravitational force and crash and near-crash events were identified, and rates per miles driven were calculated. (One mile=1.6 km.) The correlation between crashes and near crashes and elevated gravitational-force event rates was 0.60. Analyses were done by using generalized estimating equations with logistic regression. Higher elevated gravitational-force event rates in the past month substantially increased the risk of a crash in the subsequent month (odds ratio=1.07,95% confidence interval : 1.02,1.12). Although the difference in this relation did not vary significantly by time, it was highest in the first 6 months compared with the second and third 6-month periods. With a receiver operating characteristic curve, the risk models showed relatively high predictive accuracy with an area under the curve of 0.76. The authors conclude that elevated gravitational-force event rates can be used to assess risk and to show high predictive accuracy of a near-future crash. |
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