Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS R0x0M933. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Background : The aims of this paper are to derive a 10-year coronary risk predictive equation for adult Italian men, and to assess its accuracy in comparison with the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and PROCAM study equations. Methods : The CUORE study is a prospective fixed-cohort study. Eleven cohorts, from the north and the centre-south of Italy, had been investigated at baseline between 1982 and 1996, adopting MONICA methods to measure risk factors. Among this sample of 6865 men, aged 35-69 years and free of coronary heart disease (CHD) at baseline, 312 first fatal and non-fatal major coronary events occurred in 9.1 years median follow-up. Calibration, as the difference between 10-year predicted and actual risk, and discrimination, as the ability of the risk functions to separate high-risk from low-risk subjects, have been assessed to compare accuracy of the FHS, the PROCAM, and the CUORE study equations. Results : The best CUORE equation includes age, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, HDL-cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, hypertension drug treatment, and family history of CHD (area under the ROC curve=0.75). The uncalibrated estimates of the 10-year risk in this CUORE follow-up data were 0.093 and 0.109 higher (P
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