| Titre : | A dynamic model of poliomyelitis outbreaks : Learning from the past to help inform the future. (2005) |
| Auteurs : | DUINTJER TEBBENS (Radboud-J) : NLD. Department of Mathematics. Delft University of Technology. Delft. ; CACERES (Victor-M) : USA. Polio Eradication Branch. Global Immunization Division. National Immunization Program. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Atlanta. GA. ; Olen-M KEW ; Mark-A PALLANSCH ; SUTTER (Roland-W) : CHE. Department of Immunization. Vaccines and Biologicals. World Health Organization. Geneva. ; Kimberly-M THOMPSON ; Harvard School of Public Health. KidsRisk Project. Boston. MA. USA |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | American journal of epidemiology (vol. 162, n° 4, 2005) |
| Pagination : | 358-372 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Mots-clés : | Vaccin antipoliomyélitique ; Vaccination ; Poliomyélite ; Virose ; Infection ; Epidémie ; Pathologie ; Entérovirus ; Virus ; Facteur risque ; Risque ; Prévention santé ; Epidémiologie ; Système nerveux [pathologie] |
| Résumé : | [BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS f5p9KR0x. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Policy-makers now face important questions regarding the trade offs among different strategies for managing poliomyelitis risks after they succeed with polio eradication. To estimate the potential consequences of reintroductions of polioviruses and the resulting outbreaks, the authors developed a dynamic disease transmission model that can simulate many aspects of outbreaks for different posteradication conditions. In this paper, the authors identify the issues related to prospective modeling of future outbreaks using such a model, including the reality that accurate prediction of conditions and associated model inputs prior to future outbreaks remains challenging. The authors explored the model's behavior in the context of three recent outbreaks resulting from importation of poliovirus into previously polio-free countries and found that the model reproduced reported data on the incidence of cases. The authors expect that this model can provide important insights into the dynamics of future potential poliomyelitis outbreaks and in this way serve as a useful tool for risk assessment. |
Service Documentation EHESP
Me connecter
PORTAIL DOCUMENTAIRE
École des hautes études en santé publique
Catalogue
Multi-bases
Accueil
Sélection de la langue
Adresse
Service Documentation EHESPBibliothèque Rennes Avenue du Professeur Léon Bernard – CS 74312 – 35043 Rennes Cedex Bibliothèque MSSH Paris 20 avenue George Sand - 93210 La Plaine Saint-Denis
France
Bibliothèque Rennes : 02 99 02 29 50 Bibliothèque MSSH Paris : 02 99 02 24 50
contact