| Titre : | External validation of the KORA S4/F4 prediction models for the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in older adults : the PREVEND study. (2012) |
| Auteurs : | Ali Abbasi ; Stephan-Jl BAKKER ; Joline-Wj BEULENS ; Eva CORPELEIJN ; Paul-E DE JONG ; Rijk-Ob GANS ; Ron-T GANSEVOORT ; Hans-L HILLEGE ; Bernd KOWALL ; MEISINGER (Christine) : DEU. Helmholtz Zentrum München. German Research Center of Environmental Health. Institute of Epidemiology Ii. Neuherberg. ; Gerjan NAVIS ; Linda-M PEELEN ; Wolfgang RATHMANN ; Ronald-P STOLK ; Department of Epidemiology. University of Groningen. University Medical Center Groningen. RB Groningen. NLD ; Department of Internal Medicine. University of Groningen. University Medical Center Groningen. Groningen. NLD |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | European journal of epidemiology (vol. 27, n° 1, Janvier 2012) |
| Pagination : | 47-52 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Mots-clés : | Modèle ; Facteur risque ; Risque ; Personne âgée ; Epidémiologie ; Homme ; Glande endocrine [pathologie] |
| Résumé : | [BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS R0x89CGD. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Recently, prediction models for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in older adults (aged > =55 year) were developed in the KORA S4/F4 study, Augsburg, Germany. We aimed to externally validate the KORA models in a Dutch population. We used data on both older adults (n =2,050 ; aged > =55 year) and total non-diabetic population (n =6,317 ; aged 28-75 year) for this validation. We assessed performance of base model (model 1 : age, sex, BMI, smoking, parental diabetes and hypertension) and two clinical models : model 1 plus fasting glucose (model 2) ; and model 2 plus uric acid (model 3). For 7-year risk of T2DM, we calculated C-statistic, Hosmer-Lemeshow khi2-statistic, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) as measures of discrimination, calibration and reclassification, respectively. After a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 199 (9.7 %) and 374 (5.9 %) incident cases of T2DM were ascertained in the older and total population, respectively. In the older adults, C-statistic was 0.66 for model 1. This was improved for model 2 and model 3 (C-statistic =0.81) with significant IDI. In the total population, these respective C-statistics were 0.77,0.85 and 0.85. All models showed poor calibration (P <0.001). After adjustment for the intercept and slope of each model, we observed good calibration for most models in both older and total populations. We validated the KORA clinical models for prediction of T2DM in an older Dutch population, with discrimination similar to the development cohort. However, the models need to be corrected for intercept and slope to acquire good calibration for application in a different setting. |
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