Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST 3mR4R0xT. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Objectives. This study assessed whether US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000 are attainable. The United States seeks to cut smoking in its population to 15% ; the Canadian goal is 24%. Methods. Smoking data were obtained for the United States (1974 - 1994) and Canada (1970-1995) for the overall populations and several age-sex subpopulations. Analyses estimated trends, future prevalences. and the likelihood of goal attainment. Structural time-series models were used because of their ability to fit a variety of trends. Results. The findings indicate that smoking has been declining steadily since the 1970s, by approximateiy 0.7 percentage points a year, in both countries. Extrapolating these trends to the year 2000, the US prevalence will be 21% and the Canadian prevalence 24%. Conclusions, If the current trends continue, the Canadian goal seems attainable, but the US goal does not. The US goal is reachable only for 65-to 80-year-olds. who already have low smoking prevalences. It appears that both countries must increase their commitment to population-based tobacco control.
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