A space-time criterion for early detection of epid... Catalogue en ligne

Titre :	A space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness. (1998)
Auteurs :	L. TOUBIANA ; A. FLAHAULT ; Inserm U 444. Institut Fédératif Saint-Antoine de Recherche sur la Santé. Paris. FRA
Type de document :	Article
Dans :	European journal of epidemiology (vol. 14, n° 5, 1998)
Pagination :	465-470
Langues:	Anglais
Mots-clés :	Grippe ; Virose ; Infection ; Diagnostic ; Surveillance épidémiologique ; Epidémiologie ; Incidence ; Méthodologie ; Evaluation ; Homme ; France ; Europe
Résumé :	[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST u8R0xjlx. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Objectives : To develop a method based on a space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness in France. Methods : Since 1984, the French Communicable Diseases computer Network (FCDN) routinely detects epidemics of influenza-like-illness when the national incidence rate is, for 2 consecutive weeks, above a threshold computed by a periodic regression model. It appears that some areas reported early increases in incidence several weeks before the national epidemic. An optimised space-time criterion allows an early detection of the epidemic periods. Results : Applying this space-time criterion to the last 11 epidemics (from 1986). the sensitivity was 0.82 and the specificity was 0.99. Conclusion : This simple procedure can be used as an additional tool for early detection of an epidemic taking into account the distribution of new cases in space and time.

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