| Titre : | Back-calculation and projection of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among homosexual/bisexual men in three European countries : Evaluation of past projections and updates allowing for treatment effects. (2004) |
| Auteurs : | ARTZROUNI (Marc) : FRA. Department of Applied Mathematics. University of Pau. Pau. |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | European journal of epidemiology (vol. 19, n° 2, 2004) |
| Pagination : | 171-179 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Mots-clés : | Sida ; Virose ; Infection ; Homosexualité ; Bisexualité ; Europe ; Pays ; Thérapeutique ; France ; Etude prospective ; Allemagne ; Homme ; VIH ; Rétrovirus ; Virus ; Royaume Uni ; Epidémiologie ; Tendance séculaire ; Epidémie ; Immunopathologie |
| Résumé : | [BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS R0x2EZgR. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. This study critically evaluates the quality of 1990 back-calculations and long-term projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for homosexual/bisexual men in France, the Federal Republic of Germany, and the UK. The projection captured the general pattern observed in all three countries although the observed AIDS incidence peaked 2-3 years later and declined faster than had been projected. Total AIDS incidences from 1989 to 2000 were overestimated by 38.5% in France, and underestimated by 23.9 and 17.5% in western Germany and the UK. Updated back-calculations and projections to 2020 use AIDS incidence data up to 2000. The procedure incorporates an asymmetric long-tailed cumulative HIV curve as well as the increase in the median incubation period brought about by new therapies introduced during the 1990s. The results suggest that : (i) The rapid decrease in cases during the late 1990s was caused by a median incubation period that increased from 10 years to 21-23 years by the late 1990s. (ii) An imminent bottoming out followed by a protracted increase in AIDS cases from 2000 to at least 2010 could be the consequence of a leveling off of the median incubation period. (iii) A low variant of the projections shows that at least 40,000 homosexual men could develop AIDS in the three countries after 2000. |
Service Documentation EHESP
Me connecter
PORTAIL DOCUMENTAIRE
École des hautes études en santé publique
Catalogue
Multi-bases
Accueil
Sélection de la langue
Adresse
Service Documentation EHESPBibliothèque Rennes Avenue du Professeur Léon Bernard – CS 74312 – 35043 Rennes Cedex Bibliothèque MSSH Paris 20 avenue George Sand - 93210 La Plaine Saint-Denis
France
Bibliothèque Rennes : 02 99 02 29 50 Bibliothèque MSSH Paris : 02 99 02 24 50
contact