| Titre : | Increase of regional total cancer incidence in north Sweden due to the Chernobyl accident ? (2004) |
| Auteurs : | Martin TONDEL ; Olav AXELSON ; CARLSSON (Göran) : SWE. Department of Health Policy. Västernorrland County Council. Härnösand. ; HARDELL (Lennart) : SWE. Department of Oncology. Orebro University Hospital. Orebro. ; Peter HJALMARSSON ; Linköping University. Faculty of Health Sciences. Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine. Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine. Linköping. SWE |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | Journal of epidemiology and community health (vol. 58, n° 12, 2004) |
| Pagination : | 1011-1016 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Mots-clés : | Cancer ; Augmentation ; Incidence ; Nord ; Suède ; Europe du Nord ; Europe ; Accident ; Epidémiologie |
| Résumé : | [BDSP. Notice produite par INIST-CNRS JR0xA1is. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Study objective : Is there any epidemiologically visible influence on the cancer incidence after the Chernobyl fallout in Sweden ? Design : A cohort study was focused on the fallout of caesium-137 in relation to cancer incidence 1988-1996. Setting : In northern Sweden, affected by the Chernobyl accident in 1986,450 parishes were categorised by caesium-137 deposition :<3 (reference), 3-29,30-39,40-59,60-79, and 80-120 kiloBecquerel/m2. Participants : All people 0-60 years living in these parishes in 1986 to 1987 were identified and enrolled in a cohort of 1 143 182 persons. In the follow up 22 409 incident cancer cases were retrieved in 1988-1996. A further analysis focused on the secular trend. Main results : Taking age and population density as confounding factors, and lung cancer incidence in 1988-1996 and total cancer incidence in 1986-1987 by municipality as proxy confounders for smoking and time trends, respectively, the adjusted relative risks for the deposition categories were 1.00 (reference<3 kiloBecquerel/m2), 1.05,1.03,1.08,1.10, and 1.21. The excess relative risk was 0.11 per 100 kiloBecquerel/m2 (95% Cl 0.03 to 0.20). Considering the secular trend, directly age standardised cancer incidence rate differences per 100 000 person years between 1988 to 1996 and the reference period 1986-1987, were 30.3 (indicating a time trend in the reference category), 36.8,42.0,45.8,50.1, and 56.4. No clear excess occurred for leukaemia or thyroid cancer. Conclusions : Unless attributable to chance or remaining uncontrolled confounding, a slight exposure related increase in total cancer incidence has occurred in northern Sweden after the Chernobyl accident. |
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