| Titre : | An age-period-cohort analysis of 50 875 AIDS cases among injecting drug users in Europe. (1999) |
| Auteurs : | H. HOUWELING ; O.N. GILL ; F.F. HAMERS ; M.J.W. SPRENGER ; F. TERMORSHUIZEN ; L.G. WIESSING ; Department of infectious Diseases Epidemiology. National Institute of Public Health and the Environment Rivm Bilthoven. NLD |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | International journal of epidemiology (vol. 28, n° 6, 1999) |
| Pagination : | 1141-1148 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Mots-clés : | Sida ; Virose ; Infection ; Epidémiologie ; Incidence ; Tendance séculaire ; Toxicomane ; Homme ; Groupe âge ; Toxicomanie ; Stupéfiant ; Europe ; Analyse ; Immunopathologie |
| Résumé : | [BDSP. Notice produite par INIST kR0xAZ8W. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Background The long average incubation time from HIV infection to AIDS makes it difficult to estimate recent HIV transmission from AIDS incidence data. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis can separate out the effects of age, calendar time and birth cohort to provide a clearer picture of transmission trends. Methods AIDS incidence data from 1981 to 1994 among intravenous drug users (IDU) for 12 Western European countries were used. Yearly incidences per 100 000 population or 100 000 person-years were calculated by age at diagnosis and 5-year birth cohort (1950-1954,1955-1959,1960-1964,1965-1969 and 1970-1974), and corrected for reporting delay. Incidence patterns were compared between birth cohorts and countries. Results For most countries the impact was greatest on the cohort born 1960-1964. Comparing incidence patterns in the 1965-1969 to 1960-1964 cohorts suggest the epidemic has plateaued at low to intermediate levels in Austria, Greece and the North-Western European countries, and at high levels in France, Italy and Switzerland. For most countries transmission amongst the 1970-1974 as compared to the 1965-1969 cohorts could not be assessed due to small numbers and short follow-up time. In Spain the epidemic was uncontrolled with a high incidence among recent birth cohorts. In Portugal the epidemic was still at an early and expanding phase. Conclusions The APC analysis revealed large country differences in the dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among IDU. (...) |
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