Résumé :
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[BDSP. Notice produite par INIST oR0xohF6. Diffusion soumise à autorisation]. Objectives. This study simulated the effects of tobacco excise tax increases on population health. Methods. Five simulations were used to estimate health outcomes associated with tobacco tax policies : (1) the effects of price on smoking prevalence ; (2) the effects of tobacco use on years of potential life lost ; (3) the effect of tobacco use on quality of life (morbidity) ; (4) the integration of prevalence, mortality, and morbidity into a model of quality adjusted life years (QALYs) ; and (5) the development of confidence intervals around these estimates. Effects were estimated for 1 year after the tax's initiation and 75 years into the future. Results. In California, a $0.50 tax increase and price elasticity of - 0.40 would result in about 8389 QALYs (95% confidence interval [CI]=4629,12113) saved the first year. Greater benefits would accrue each year until a steady state was reached after 75 years, when 52 136 QALYs (95% CI=38 297,66 262) would accrue each year. Higher taxes would produce even greater health benefits. Conclusions. A tobacco excise tax may be among a few policy options that will enhance a population's health status while making revenues available to government.
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