Résumé :
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This paper considers the development of microbiological risk assessment models for pathogenic agents in drinking water with particular reference to Cryptosporidium parvum, rotavirus and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). The available evidence suggests that there is potential for considerable variation in exposure to C. parvum oocyts through drinking water, during both outbreak and nonoutbreak conditions. This spatial/temporal heterogeneity arises both from variation in oocyst densities in the raw water and fluctuations in the removal efficiencies of drinking water treatment. The total pathogen loading on the population as represented by the arithmetic mean exposure is sufficient for risk prediction for C. parvum, BSE and other agents of low infectivity, providing the infecting particles are known to act independently. However, for more highly infectious agents, such as rotavirus, ignoring the variation and just using the arithmetic mean exposure may over-estimate the risk by a factor of about threefold. (R.A.).
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